Evening Wrap: ASX 200 pares 185 point opening plunge as flight to safety drives massive surge in gold stocks (2025)

It was another golden performance from the glitterati of the ASX Gold Sector today, as most stocks, from big Northern Star Resources (NST) (+5.5%), Newmont Corporation (NEM) (+5.3%) and Evolution Mining (EVN) (7.8%) to small-but-rapidly rising Rox Resources (RXL) (12.9%), Ora Banda Mining (OBM) (+14.8%), and Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) (+14.9%) enjoying strong gains.

In fact, the Gold Sector's +5% surge today was light years ahead of the rest of the pack, with only Consumer Discretionary stocks (led by Wesfarmers (WES) (+2.0%)) managing a gain.

This meant most stock succumbed to the resumption of trade war worry-based selling today. But it could have been much, much worse - as the ASX 200 closed 122 points above its low of the session.

And that was the theme of the week – dodging the bullet! Thanks to President Trump's about face on the implementation of his reciprocal tariffs, stocks managed to close nearly 500 points up from their weekly lows.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, Gold, and US 10-year & 30-year Treasury Bond Yields in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Today in Review

Fri 11 Apr 25, 5:13pm (AEST)

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 63.1 points lower at 7,646.5, 1.6% from its session low and just 0.83% from its high. Despite the steady recovery in the benchmark throughout today’s session, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a sizeable 83 to 193.

For the week, the XJO finished down just 21.3 points or 0.28% lower. I say “just” because it closed a staggering 477 points or 6.7% from its intraweek low of 7169.2. This was still 196 points or 2.6% from its intraweek high, however.

What a week ladies and gentlemen!

It was a week when the most powerful man in the world was schooled about the importance of the bond market (thank goodness!). This forced him on Wednesday into one of the fastest and monumental policy about-faces in the history of politics.

"The bond market right now is beautiful" –Donald Trump, Wednesday 9 April

Just hours before Trump's about-face, I noted how the bond market was indicating global investors were dumping America’s premium risk-free asset – the US 10-year Treasury Bond, and how its rising yield was in response to markets factoring out the “Fed Put” (i.e., this notion the Fed will at some point ride to a flailing market’s rescue with interest rate cuts – highly unlikely if US trade policy entrenches a major inflation). It also spoke of increased fears the global economy was at threat of falling into a great stagflation, and that global investors were losing faith in US treasuries as a risk-free reserve asset.

Put all of the above together and you're you get some potentially nasty stuff, and that’s why President Trump was forced to act.

Ok, well get this. The yield on the 10-year US T-Bond we’ve been tracking here well in advance of this week’s shenanigans is higher than it was before Trump’s about-face.

US 10 Year T-Bond Yield, last candle 10 April (click here for full size image)

Note also, the disturbing rise in the US 30 T-Bond Yield – a long used proxy for US mortgage rates. 4-Apr low 4.33%, pre-backflip high 5.02%. That’s the better part of three Fed rate hikes, and potentially if not stopped soon – could result in irreparable damage to the US economy.

US 30 Year T-Bond Yield, last candle 10 April (click here for full size image)

Not so “beautiful” now, huh Mr. Trump? 🤔

On a side-note, gold's recent strength is absolutely no coincidence – it is a direct beneficiary for the sudden demise of US Treasuries as a risk-free bet.

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX (click here for full size image)

Clearly, whilst stock prices have been mended somewhat, the market is dealing with largely the same issues now as before Trump’s about face, namely:

10% universal US import tariff remains, and the tariff applied to Chinese imports are higher at the end of the week than at the start of the week (now 145%!)

• 90-days? Yeah right. We could be 90 minutes from the next Trump policy tweet!

• US trading partners are drafting or implementing retaliatory tariffs, including China’s 84% (how do they come up with these ridiculous numbers!?) – the deal is likely already sealed on a substantial hit to global growth, and very likely an increase in inflation that could hamper the prevailing environment of central bank rate cuts

• Trust in the US is broken, and arguably may never recover to pre-Trump levels – there is likely to be at least some permanent shift away from US trade, but more importantly in the view that the US dollar and US bonds are reserve assets

• The low volatility uptrend enjoyed by stocks is over – momentum funds – so influential in pumping the bull market are going to withdraw to the sidelines

So, we live in interesting times to say the least. Today’s trade on the ASX reflected the moves in global bond markets overnight – down again. At least at the open – starting the session 185 points (-2.4%) lower.

But, the ending point loss, some 122 points above its low, suggests fund managers were prepared to bet we’ve reached the inflection point of this phase of President Trump’s great trade experiment. The hope is that with his backflip this week, we're more likely to see common sense prevail – and further moderations in policy – rather than escalations of it.

Let’s hope they’re right!

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

The zebra lingers 🦓! (click here for full size image)

The zebra lingers 🦓!

However, I would describe last night’s candle on the Comp as more of a “fighting retreat” than the media-frenzy description of a resumption of the selloff.

We know better because we can read the price action. So, we know that downward pointing shadow in last night’s candle points to where early-session excess supply was met with, then overwhelmed by the demand-side.

There was a credible whack of buy the dip last night – to go with the massive buy the dip and “OMG my shorts are ripping my face off 😱” surge from Wednesday’s candle.

So, I don’t think a great deal has changed since yesterday’s commentary: All things being equal, the price action, volume, and volatility together suggest an increased probability that a major low is in.

All things being equal means: Assuming no more backflips or a “NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO SELL!!! DJT” tweet! 🤞

Long downward pointing shadows are price action traders’ golden nuggets. Never discount them, always heed what they’re telling you.

The longer the shadow, the greater the demand (downward pointing shadow) or supply (upward pointing shadow) likely lying in wait there.

It also means that if we close below the low of a downward pointing shadow – that demand has been consumed by the supply-side, and if we close above the high of an upward pointing shadow – that supply has been consumed by the demand-side.

In short, 14784 is critical – no doubt and no change to our analysis there – but the low of last night’s candle at 15894 is also an interesting little pivot point. A close below it would, I suggest, put a great deal of pressure on new longs…and embolden shorts who weren’t roasted, toasted, sliced, and diced on Wednesday.

What to watch for tonight:

A follow through demand-side candle that continues last night’s reversal from the lows, closing back in the supply zone defined by 16668-top of the short term downtrend ribbon. Indication: Bullish.

Abovementioned follow through lasts only partially, and by the close, the supply-side has quashed the rally and we have an upward pointing shadow into the supply zone. Indication: Disturbingly Bearish.

Those are the two most likely scenarios in my opinion, and each suggests the price action in the supply zone is going to be critical in telling us what the big fund managers want to do.

Do they want to keep buying this dip, secure in the knowledge that Trump will continue to back down as his advisers increasingly tell him he must or face US economic and or political Armageddon (i.e., the “Trump Put”)?

Or, do they want to decisively take advantage of the rally and the increased liquidity it has created – to dump into it and further reduce their risk ahead of the aforementioned looming Armageddon? As in, they can see it’s now inevitable and DJT’s tweet only serves as one last miracle of an opportunity to get out!

Hmmm 🤔, what do you think?

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Ditto...So what!? (click here for full size image)

A pretty similar day on the ASX 200 today – and to be fair, we’re just going to follow what happens in the US and other global markets for the time being. It’s not like our fund managers are going to out on a limb and make some great stand – a showing of faith or lack thereof, either way.

So, it’s a bit of a “ditto” here. We must monitor how the price action plays out in our relevant supply zone, 7733-top of the short term trend ribbon – i.e., either demand-side showings or supply-side showings in there.

Our critical demand level is 7169, and above it, today’s downward pointing shadow low of 7524 is likely to an interesting little pressure point. As long as we continue to close above them, then Thursday’s rally is intact – and similarly below them, it’s in severe danger.

The technicals have been juiced this week. They’re not what would have occurred under non-Trump circumstances. So, we must simply wait for the next candle, and the next, and make our best guess based upon the evidence.

And brings me to my final point: So what!?

If I can’t increase my risk position until I see a close above, retest, and hold of the long term uptrend ribbon (look up and think about how much must transpire for that to occur!) – and I can’t reduce my risk any further because I’m already at my most conservative risk setting – then it’s all a big ball of ho-hum for the time being 🤷.

If you have a well-defined plan for how you enter and exit the market, and if you have an equally well-defined plan for how much you risk on an individual position and on a portfolio basis at any one time – then the market is going to be ho-hum most of the time.

Yes, even in the crazy times in which we’re navigating through right now…

Have a great weekend everyone – it was another fun and enlightening week! 🏖️

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• Friday

  • 22:30 USA Core PPI March (+0.3% m/m and 3.4% p.a. forecast vs -0.1% m/m and 3.2% p.a. in February)

  Saturday

  • 00:00 Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment April (54.0 forecast vs 57.0 previous)

Latest News

More News

Trading higher

• +14.9% Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.8% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.9% Rox Resources (RXL) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.5% Southern Cross Gold (SX2) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.5% St Barbara (SBM) - Strong Community Support at ML Renewal Warden Hearing, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +8.6% Predictive Discovery (PDI) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.5% Imricor Medical Systems (IMR) - Imricor Commences VISABL-VT Clinical Trial.

• +8.4% Emerald Resources (EMR) - No news since 10-Apr March 2025 Quarterly Production Update, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +8.0% Antipa Minerals (AZY) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.0% Pantoro (PNR) - No news since 09-Apr High Grade Results from OK Underground Drilling, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, upgraded to hold from sell at Bell Potter, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +7.8% Evolution Mining (EVN) - Change in substantial holding (Australian Super increase from 14.9% to 16.0%), general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.6% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Hedge Fund ETF (SNAS) - No news, short Nasdaq ETF (it's been either in this list or the next list each day this week 🤦!).

• +6.9% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.5% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +5.9% De Grey Mining (DEG) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.6% EBR Systems (EBR) - No news, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +5.5% Northern Star Resources (NST) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.3% Newmont Corporation (NEM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.0% Andean Silver (ASL) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.0% Adriatic Metals (ADT) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +4.7% Catalyst Metals (CYL) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -35.8% Monash IVF Group (MVF) - Media Report following Brisbane clinic incident.

• -9.2% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -6.8% Droneshield (DRO) - No news 🤔.

• -6.3% HMC Capital (HMC) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.9% Tabcorp (TAH) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -5.8% L1 Long Short Fund (LSF) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -5.5% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Copper sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.4% Metals Acquisition (MAC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Copper sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.3% Orthocell (OCC) - No news since 10-Apr Remplir Regulatory Application Submitted for Hong Kong.

• -5.2% Nuix (NXL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.2% DigiCo REIT (DGT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.2% WEB Travel Group (WEB) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.20

• Aussie Broadband (ABB)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.90

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.35

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $3.80

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.65 from $4.80

  • Retained at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $5.08

• Amplitude Energy (AEL)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.270

  • Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.250 from $0.260

• AGL Energy (AGL)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $11.40 from $11.90

• Ampol (ALD)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $30.60 from $31.30

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $39.54

• Arena Reit. (ARF)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.96

• American West Metals (AW1)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.200

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.60 from $4.50

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.70

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.20

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.250 from $1.300

  • Downgraded to underweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $1.190 from $1.380

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.550 from $1.600

• Codan (CDA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.50

• Charter Hall Group (CHC)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.15

• Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.34

• Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.73

• Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.780

• Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.51

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.30 from $18.30

• DigiCo REIT (DGT)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.40 from $5.80

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.33

• Dexus Industria Reit. (DXI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.18

• Dexus (DXS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.08

• Ebos Group (EBO)

  • Retained at Citi; Price Target: $32.00

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.80 from $37.00

• Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.60 from $21.50

• Goodman Group (GMG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.31

• Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.57

• GPT Group (GPT)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.38

• Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.050

• Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.140

• Helia Group (HLI)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.70

• HMC Capital (HMC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.15 from $12.90

• Hub24 (HUB)

  • Downgraded to lighten from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $43.20 from $84.00

• Infratil (IFT)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $11.00 from $11.50

• Karoon Energy (KAR)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.01 from $2.09

  • Downgraded to overweight from buy at Jarden; Price Target: $1.530 from $2.05

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.10

• Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00 from $9.70

• Lendlease Group (LLC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.24

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $0.490 from $0.660

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Downgraded to sell from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.50 from $7.30

• Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $71.00 from $80.00

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $80.00

• Maas Group (MGH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.95 from $5.06

• Mirvac Group (MGR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.56

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $18.00 from $26.00

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $60.00 from $50.00

• National Storage Reit (NSR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.42

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $26.40 from $25.80

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $27.30 from $26.50

  • Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $31.00 from $32.00

  • Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $24.30 from $24.95

  • Upgraded to buy from underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $29.11 from $27.60

  • Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $21.50 from $22.50

  • Downgraded to lighten from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $15.40 from $33.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $28.00 from $29.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $28.00 from $29.00

• Nextdc (NXT)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $14.70 from $17.10

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.00

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.05 from $10.30

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.70 from $11.80

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.40 from $3.10

• Pantoro (PNR)

  • Upgraded to hold from sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.40

• Polynovo (PNV)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.80

• Praemium (PPS)

  • Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.900

• Qualitas (QAL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.10

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $270.00

• Region Group (RGN)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.03

• Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60 from $5.90

• Scentre Group (SCG)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.24

• Siteminder (SDR)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.90

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.39

• Santana Minerals (SMI)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.300 from $1.070

• Santos (STO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.80 from $7.90

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.80 from $8.00

• Strike Energy (STX)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.250

• Vicinity Centres (VCX)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.11

• Viva Energy Group (VEA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.05

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $23.90 from $24.50

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $23.50 from $26.50

• WEB Travel Group (WEB)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.70

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $112.50 from $122.50

• Wisr (WZR)

  • Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.060

Scans

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

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Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.